Chinese online retail look set to reach a “double the size” of the US market in three years, says new research by Forrester.
The ecommerce market is expected to hit $1.8tn (£1.4tr) in 2022, suggests report by The ecommerce in China: trends and outlook for the largest ecommerce market by Forrester.
Chinese online retail is set to see $1.1tr (£85m) this year. This will make the country the first trillion-dollar ecommerce in the word.
Some 38% of the Chinese population are currently shopping online. The percentage is expected to see an 8.5% compound annual growth rate by 2022.
Marketplace businesses such as Alibaba and JD.com are currently accounting for 85% of the Chinese online market. However, they are now facing increased competition from new entrants including Pinduoduo and Xiaohongshu.
This news poses a question on whether the US and China trade war would impact the country’s ecommerce growth. Alibaba already saw the slowest growth since the third quarter of fiscal 2016 as the result of the US-China trade war keeping shoppers away during the peak trading season. January saw Alibaba addressing “unfair” treatment of technology company Huawei after the US tried to limit the tech leader’s access to Western markets.
In what it looks like a US-China trade war, will China stand a chance of reaching its predicted target?