British trade to see growth as Brexit delayed

British trade is set to experience moderate growth as Brexit delay brings advantage to the spike, says the DHL Global Trade Barometer (GTB).

In January 2018, DHL introduced the DHL Global Trade Barometer as an indicator for the current state and future development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of logistics data that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence. The barometer’s scoring threshold is 50 points which mark the line between positive and negative growth in the GTB methodology. This means that scoring 50 points and above represents growth.

The DHL announced today that air trade in Britain will increase by 6 points to 55. It puts down the growth to the increase in imports via the air.

The outlook for air imports is positive with basic raw materials, machinery parts and personal and household goods expected to flourish. The air export outlook is fueled through the robust growth of air exports of industrial raw materials and temperature or climate controlled goods. High technology and machinery parts exports are expected to decelerate significantly, while chemicals and products and personal and household goods remain sluggish.

British ocean trade is expected to remain competitive despite its drop of – 4 points to 56 from March 2019. That’s six months after having the second-worst trade outlook of all GTB constituents, the UK now actually scores best.

British ocean trade growth is focused on imports, as consumer fashion goods, land vehicles and parts and basic raw materials imports are expected to thrive.

However, machinery parts imports are predicted to decelerate and reach a standstill. In ocean exports, the basic raw materials outlook remains robust, though decelerating compared to the previous quarter. Exports of land Vehicles and parts are on the rise, too, contributing to ocean exports growth.

However, the contraction expected in machinery parts, capital equipment and machinery and industrial raw materials weighs down on the latest ocean export outlook.

Trade sectors that benefitted most from the UK’s trade growth in the last four months included consumer fashion goods, which rose +34 points to 83, as well as land vehicles and parts, which rose +21 points to 63.