DHL and the New York University Stern School of Business have released the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 today, providing a comprehensive analysis of the most important trends in global trade. In the face of eopolitical tensions and concerns about widespread tariff increases, the report features data-backed insights, covering nearly 200 countries and territories.
Uncertainty looms over future trade policies following U.S. President Donald Trump’s re-election last year. The DHL Trade Atlas 2025, however, highlights how global trade growth has proven surprisingly resilient in the face of recent disruptions. This pattern is likely to continue even as the U.S. begins a campaign of tariff increases.
Key Takeaways from DHL Trade Atlas 2025
- Faster forecast growth, greater uncertainty: Global trade is forecast to grow at a modestly faster pace over the next five years than during the preceding decade. However, record high uncertainty about future trade policies clouds the outlook.
- Trump tariff impact: Even if all tariff increases proposed by the Trump administration are implemented and countries retaliate in turn, global trade is forecast to continue growing – but at a much slower pace.
- Made-in-China content finding new routes to U.S.: The share of U.S. imports coming directly from China continues to fall, but U.S. reliance on made-in-China content has not declined substantially. U.S. imports from other countries contain more inputs from China, and U.S. direct imports from China may be underreported.
- Global geopolitical shifts limited: Geopolitically driven shifts in global trade patterns remain limited and appear to have stalled in 2024. While trade between blocs of close allies declined relative to trade within these blocs in 2022 and 2023, there were no further declines over the first nine months of 2024.
- Recent growth leaders: Three countries ranked among the top 30 worldwide on both the speed (growth rate) and the scale (absolute amount) of their goods trade volume growth over the past five years: the United Arab Emirates, Viet Nam, and Ireland.
- Forecast future growth leaders: During the next five years, India, Viet Nam, Indonesia, and the Philippines are forecast to rank among the top 30 for both speed and scale of trade growth. India also stands out as the country with the third largest absolute amount of forecast trade growth (6% of additional global trade), behind only China (12%) and the United States (10%).
- Standout regions: South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia are forecast to achieve much faster trade volume growth than all other regions from 2024 to 2029. However, slower-growing Europe is forecast to generate a larger share (30%) of the world’s total trade growth. High income economies are forecast to generate 58% of trade growth, while low- and middle-income economies generate 42%.
- Long-distance trade going strong: Contrary to predictions that recent disruptions would lead to more regionalized trade patterns, trade took place over the longest average distance on record during the first nine months of 2024 (5,000 km). The share taking place inside major geographic regions declined to a new low (51%).
- Trade leaders by sector: Most trade is in manufactured goods, but price increases have boosted the value of trade in mineral fuels. From 2017 to 2022, the categories with the largest increases in the value of goods traded were mineral fuels, electrical machinery and equipment, industrial machinery, and pharmaceuticals.
- Large headroom for trade growth: Even after decades of increases in the integration of the world economy via trade, only 21% of the value of all goods and services produced around the world ultimately ends up in a different country from where it was produced. There is still very large potential for future trade growth.
Faster trade growth compared to the previous decade
Recent forecasts predict goods trade will grow at a compound annual rate of 3.1% from 2024 to 2029. This roughly aligns with GDP growth and represents modestly faster trade growth compared to the previous decade. Even if the new U.S. administration implements all of its proposed tariff increases and other countries retaliate, global trade is still expected to grow over the next five years – but at a much slower pace.
The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 reveals highly encouraging insights.There is still significant potential for trade growth in advanced and emerging economies worldwide. It’s impressive to see how international trade continues to withstand every conceivable challenge, from the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic to tariffs and geopolitical conflicts. In today’s global business landscape, DHL can assist customers in reevaluating their supply chains by establishing a balanced approach between cost and risk, ensuring they are both efficient and secure.
– John Pearson, CEO, DHL Express
New leaders in trade growth: India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines
Between 2024 and 2029, four countries are forecast to rank among the top 30 for both speed (growth rate) and scale (absolute amount) of trade growth: India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines. India also stands out as the country with the third largest absolute amount of forecast trade growth (6% of additional global trade), behind China (12%) and the United States (10%). The countries expected to deliver the most absolute trade growth are spread across Asia, Europe, and North America. At the same time, the countries with the fastest projected trade growth also include several in Africa and Latin America.
At the level of major world regions, the fastest trade volume growth from 2024 to 2029 is forecast for South & Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the ASEAN countries – with compound annual growth rates between 5% and 6%. All other regions are forecast to grow at rates of 2% to 4%.
New record in long-distance trade
Despite widespread interest in nearshoring and producing goods closer to customers, the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 demonstrates that trade has not become more regionalized overall. Actual trade flows indicate the opposite trend. In the first nine months of 2024, the average distance traversed for all traded goods reached a record 5,000 kilometers, while the share of trade within major regions fell to a new low of 51%.
Reasons for optimism in the face of U.S. policy shifts
The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 outlines several reasons for optimism about the future of global trade despite a turn toward more restrictive U.S. trade policies. Most countries continue to pursue trade as a key economic opportunity, and U.S. trade barriers could strengthen ties among other countries. Also, many of Trump’s tariff threats may end up different than originally proposed or delayed to prevent a spike in domestic inflation. Moreover, the U.S. share of world imports currently stands at 13%, and its share of exports is 9% – enough for U.S. policies to have substantial effects on other countries but not enough to unilaterally determine the future of global trade.
“While threats to the global trading system must be taken seriously, global trade has shown great resilience because of the large benefits that it delivers for economies and societies,” said Steven A. Altman, Senior Research Scholar and Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management. “While the U.S. could pull back from trade – at a significant cost – other countries are not likely to follow the U.S. down that path because smaller countries would suffer even more in a global retreat from trade.”
Made-in-China content finds new routes to the U.S.
The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 provides an update on geopolitically driven shifts in trade patterns. While trade between blocs of close allies of the U.S. and China declined in 2022 and 2023 relative to trade within these blocs, those declines were minor and did not continue in 2024.
The U.S. and China have reduced their shares of trade with each other, but not enough to constitute a meaningful “decoupling.” Direct U.S.–China trade has fallen from 3.5% of world trade in 2016 to 2.6% over the first nine months of 2024. However, the U.S. still brings in as high a share of its imports from China as the rest of the world does. Also, there is evidence suggesting that U.S. imports from China are underreported. Moreover, data that also considers Chinese inputs in goods the U.S. imports from other countries suggests no meaningful drop in U.S. reliance on goods made in China. The DHL Trade Atlas 2025
The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 features a wealth of data-driven insights and analysis on global trade and its prospects. It is an up-to-date resource for business leaders, policymakers, educators, students, media, and the interested public. It includes concise one-page profiles summarizing the trade patterns of nearly 200 countries and territories that comprise over 99% of world trade, GDP, and population. The free interactive content available at dhl.com/tradeatlas is a new feature of the report. The website enables users to customize analyses and explore trade trends by specific countries, regions, and categories of goods. Additionally, it offers convenient options for downloading data and images.
The report was commissioned by DHL and authored by Steven A. Altman and Caroline R. Bastian of New York University Stern School of Business. It was finalized in February 2025 using data and forecast updates through January 2025.
