After a muted start to Peak, the market has finally woken up. The past week delivered a stronge surge as consumers, fuelled by November pay packets, shifted from browsing to buying, says the GFS Peak Bulletin Issue 2 which you can read in full here.
Retailers now face a decisive moment: promotions alone won’t win this week. Speed, stability and fulfilment discipline will determine who captures demand—and who struggles through Cyber Week.
GFS Peak Bulletin Highlights
- UK shoppers are laser-focused on value and timing. Early-November deals didn’t persuade them, but as discounts deepen and pay day hits, conversion is climbing sharply.
- Most consumers have spent the last two weeks researching, price-tracking and “waiting for the real deals”. Meaning the next 10 days will be intensely competitive.
- Carrier volumes in week 46 were lower than forecast across almost all sectors including fashion, homeware and gifting. In Week 47 GFS saw an uplift with volumes moving to be in line with forecasts.
- A number of retailers had advised that they would go early this year with Black Friday promotions but these do not seem to have gained any real traction with consumers until we moved into the latter part of November and over the last few days the Christmas spirit has started to kick in with consumers.
- Volume is expect to increase significantly this week in the final days before Black Friday. This will be boosted as consumers use their November pay packets to fully kick start Peak volumes in 2025.
- Consumers may be chasing discounts, but retailers are juggling rising costs behind the scenes. Carrier surcharges, fuel, storage, labour and returns processing remain stubbornly high, tightening the gap between promotional depth and profit margin.
- As Peak accelerates, last-mile clarity will become a critical levers to protect both margin and customer experience.
- Peak 2025 has officially entered high gear. Early promotions didn’t move consumers, but momentum is now building fast. And with weather disruptions easing, carrier networks stabilising and pay-weekend spend kicking in, the next 7 days will set the tone for the entire season.
