World First has set out in a blog post some of the things worth keeping an eye out for as the Brexit negotiations between the EU and UK pan out over the next two years. You can read the full post here.
As they say: “we think that there are 5 big issues to watch carefully as the negotiations unfold:
– The ‘Divorce’ deal – how quickly the costs of the uncoupling are sorted will determine when we can start talking about trade.
– The UK election – will a larger mandate for May mean anything in Brussels?
– The French election – A Le Pen win is an automatic boost for sterling.
– A transitional agreement – Article 50 dictates a hard stop in March 2019; can the UK ease into its new stance?
– What trading arrangement will we get? – Access isn’t the same as free access and an instantaneous move from the single market to WTO rules is a serious risk.”
The French presidency will be determined this weekend. And the UK general elections is mere weeks away. But the question of the nature of the deal is coming into greater relief. Perhaps the most interesting aspect of this list is the idea of a transition agreement.
Obviously the money bit comes first but then the issue of free movement of goods (a vital concern for marketplace sellers) will follow. Doubtless, as always with these things, talks will go right to the wire in March 2019. But it seems that we may well be looking at a transitional agreement at some point: which is a new idea at Tamebay HQ.
Such is the complexity and scale extricating the the UK from the EU, it seems plausible that there will have to be a stop-gap agreement as the wrangling drags on. It seems to me that any restriction on the free movement of goods is going to have significant impact on British ecommerce merchants. Even an EEA style arrangement will have an impact. Still, it will be months yet until we have any clarity. So, keep ’em peeled.
