Amazon Prime Day predictions and Q4 forecasting

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It would be unusual for their not to be a ton of Amazon Prime Day predictions of what to expect this Monday and Tuesday, so here are the thoughts of Krish Iyer, Head of Industry Relationships & Partnerships, ShipStation

Prime Day Predictions

“The main trend we need to start tracking is the ‘rising tide that lifts all boats’ phenomenon. Other retailers and marketplaces are also going to offer special buying incentives at the same time as Prime Day. We’ll need to monitor the spillover effect. Price sensitivity will also come into play.
Prime Day means discounted specials to entice a consumer to buy, but with the urgency of limited inventory and time. At what price point will the item for sale have a demand that allows for a higher premium on another channel, and what is this price difference/delta?
For example, let’s say sheets that normally sell for $75 are on sale for $24.99 on Prime Day. This item will obviously sell out quickly. At what price threshold of discounting will another channel have a spillover effect of purchasing the item, and what is the price where this urgency converts to a sale?”

– Krish Iyer, Head of Industry Relationships & Partnerships, ShipStation

What will Prime Day tell us about Q4?

Krish also believes that Prime Day will be a good indication of what to expect this coming Black Friday and Christmas:

“Yes, Prime Day will be an indicator of trends to expect this holiday season. It’ll be key to watch not only the spillover effect on a specific item, but the ‘reasonable substitutes’ that get purchased. If buyer interest is created, but the product is not available, we’ll need to monitor what the reasonable substitutes/brands/items that the consumer might be willing to accept are, and at what price point. This often happens during holiday shopping: ask any parent who has tried to buy toys for their child at holiday time…a lesson of bitter experience.”
– Krish Iyer, Head of Industry Relationships & Partnerships, ShipStation

Top metrics to monitor on Prime Day

Finally, here are some interesting things to watch out for which could impact consumer behaviour over the next couple of days from Krish:

  • If demand exceeds supply — and it will, for certain items — what is the longest lead time of shipping/fulfillment that this consumer will reasonably allow to satisfy their demand?
  • Which retailers will band together for offers to motivate consumers. We could see some shocking combinations, such as apparel and furniture teaming up, or even competitors.
  • Whether retailers will modify their returns windows, methods and policies in light of Prime Day.
  • We [Americans] tend to think of Prime Day as US consumers, but it’s a global phenomenon. I am especially interested in comparing Prime Day to Singles Day in China.”

Scale your business with seamless fulfilment and shippingScale your business with seamless fulfilment and shipping

ShipStation are of course experts in fulfiment and shipping. To learn how to scale your business, essential for Prime Day, watch the Tamebay Live ShipStation masterclass for expert tips and insider knowledge from the experts.

This masterclass, delivered by Claire Milligan, UK Account Manager at ShipStation, is available for free to watch on demand here.


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