What do you get if you cross the privatisation of the Royal Mail with the misselling of credit card insurance? The answer, according to market Research firm Verdict, is a boost in consumer confidence that will see the best Q4 seasonal spending since 2007.
That’s right. They reckon many people have managed to find a little more pocket money from buying Royal Mail shares and flogging them for an instant profit. And plenty others have enjoyed a windfall because of bank payouts to those who were missold insurance a decade ago. All this adds up to an angelic “halo-effect”, they say.
“At last things are getting better” says Maureen Hinton of Verdict. She predicts an additional £1.9bn on Christmas spending in 2013 when compared with last year. That’s £88.4bn in 2013’s fourth quarter, compared to £86.5bn in the same period last year.
Amazon will be biggest beneficiary online, apparently. Online shopping will grow 12% to £11.6bn. That seems a little conservative to me.
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I think it’s conservative too. The only possible (and literal) cloud on the horizon is the “worst winter for decades” predicted by the Daily Express. If November’s really bad then we will see an earlier peak as people lose confidence in the carriers’ ability to deliver on time.
Is that before or after Royal Mail strikes and the worst Winter for decades?
If you talk to the Met Office they will tell you that they have problems predicting the weather more than 5 days in advance. I saw the Daily Express predictions. At this stage they are probably a mixture of statistical analysis of previous weather records and crystal ball gazing.
So what is this winter going to be like? Well it is fair to assume that there will be cold bits and wet bits and even mild bits. Its just the proportions of each that might be in question. I just hope that all the various service providers such as Royal Mail, Road Agency, Councils with their Snow Ploughs, salters and gritters, Railway Operators etc have their contingency plans all worked out and can overcome whatever the weather finally gives us. If not then we are going to have problems.
Tut tut Dan, you naughty socialist. That’s not the full story is it 😀
“Economics news is positive, the housing market is moving and there are more initiatives to buy which makes people feel better off – so they invest in doing their houses up or move at last and spend on big ticket items.” says Maureen Hinton.
Lets give George a pat on the back.
Ebay themselves are more downbeat in their forecast released last night in the USA. Who do we believe?